Researchers Explain the Impact of Family Policies on Birth Rates

New York, United States – A decline in birth rates is reported in many countries around the world, straining economic and social systems as populations age and are not replaced. To address this issue, the NGO Committee on the Family, NY (NGOCF) of which UPF is an executive member, held a side event during the UN Commission on Population Development at UN Headquarters in New York on April 8, 2025, co-sponsored by the Permanent Mission of Malaysia and Permanent Mission of the Republic of Vanuatu.

This second Annual Forum for Family Policy and Population Research was titled, “Exploring Global Fertility Trends, Family Dynamics, and Solutions.” Four experts discussed their current research on the effectiveness of different family policies on fertility rates.

In his opening remarks, Amb. Ahmad Faisal Muhamad, ambassador of Malaysia to the United Nations, noted that many governments around the world are struggling with low fertility rates. He underlined that families are important for sustainable development, and said that “sharing insights and knowledge are critical in promoting responsive and inclusive policies that support families for a sustainable and prosperous society.” Seven UN delegates were present and engaged in the discussion.

Dr. Anson Zhou, assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong, stated that historical data indicate anti-fertility policies have been highly effective, as birth rates have declined worldwide, including in Sub-Saharan Africa and other traditionally high-fertility regions. Almost a third of the global population now lives in areas where the population is actually shrinking due to persistent sub-replacement fertility rates. He highlighted the asymmetry between the success of anti-natal policies and the limited effectiveness of pro-natal efforts. In his research, Dr. Zhou noted that "the once discounted 'empty planet' future now seems altogether plausible."

Anti-fertility campaigns, once driven by concerns over a "population bomb," have received broad policy support and implementation. In contrast, as economies improve, people become accustomed to a certain standard of living. Dr. Zhou described the rise in "material aspirations" within cultures as a "slippery slope." The perceived loss of income and time – or the growing "opportunity cost" – associated with parenting has increasingly led people to have fewer or no children.

Dr. Zhou asserted that even in the absence of anti-natal policies, fertility rates will likely continue to decline due to this rising loss aversion. Dr. Zhou concluded by citing examples of pro-fertility campaigns, policies, and programs aimed at supporting parents, but emphasized that, given the prevailing attitudes of loss aversion and anti-natal sentiment, countries will need to raise their fertility rate targets to stabilize population growth.

Ms. Anna Claire Flowers, PhD fellow at George Mason University, presented her recent research paper, “Childcare Regulation and the Fertility Gap.” Data indicate that worldwide, especially in high-income countries, many women report having fewer children than they would like, creating what is called the “fertility gap.” In the United States, where 74 percent of mothers work and women’s wages have risen, the opportunity cost of having children – and the resulting work-family conflict – has increased the demand for childcare. A major economic policy focus in developed countries has been to provide institutional or formal childcare, primarily to boost women’s employment, not necessarily to raise birth rates.

To ensure childcare is safe and secure, governments impose regulations, such as requiring background checks, certification, or specific education levels for childcare providers. However, restrictive regulations negatively impact childcare availability. Ms. Flowers' research compared different state regulations to their fertility gap. States that require low staff-to-child ratios and large square footage for facilities, including playgrounds, tend to significantly limit the number of childcare centers in large cities. This results in higher costs for parents and reduced availability of childcare, often farther from workplaces. Regulations that mandate college degrees and annual training certifications for providers also reduce the number of available childcare workers, shorten their retention time, and further drive up costs.

In contrast, states with more flexible regulations have seen an increase in the number of childcare facilities, offering greater scheduling flexibility and lower costs for parents. These less restrictive states also had smaller fertility gaps, meaning more women were able to work and have the number of children they desired. Ms. Flowers' data indicates that adopting less universal and less restrictive regulatory policies could raise the total fertility rate from 1.51 to 1.70 – a 13% increase. This research could help governments choose childcare regulations that keep the environment healthy and safe but also facilitate more childcare options for parents.  

Dr. Nagham Sayour, associate professor of economics at Zayed University, UAE, presented her research titled “Affordability Crisis & Delayed Fertility: Evidence from the USA.” She highlights that countries grappling with low fertility rates – such as the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and EU member states – are also facing severe housing shortages and unaffordability. Many couples prefer the financial and emotional stability of homeownership before starting a family. However, today, the average age at which women begin childbearing has shifted to the late 20s and early 30s. It is not widely recognized that female fertility starts to decline in the late 20’s.  

Dr. Sayour’s findings reveal that renters tend to delay childbearing significantly longer than homeowners, particularly in areas where housing is unaffordable. Each year of delay reduces a woman’s fertility by about 2%, with compounding effects as age increases. This trend carries serious long-term consequences, leading to a widespread reduction in childbearing capacity across populations.

In response to these challenges, Dr. Sayour recommends policies aimed at improving access to affordable mortgages, increasing housing availability, expanding child-friendly rental options, and implementing proactive measures that support couples in achieving their desired family size.

Mr. Lyman Stone, director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies and chief information officer for Demographic Intelligence, moderated the panel discussion. Numerous UN delegates asked questions and shared their nations’ pro-fertility policies. A serious and insightful discussion followed, addressing the seriousness of population decline and the difficulties in turning it around. Mr. Rachana Chhin, legal counsel for Alliance Defending Freedom International and executive member of the NGOCF, NY, closed the meeting.

By Lynn Walsh, Director, UPF Office of the Family April 8, 2025

For more information on the UN statement on Population Development:  digitallibrary.un.org/record/3959009?v=pdf

Link to the NGOCF: http://www.ngofamilyny.org/